The Most Wonderful Time of the Year

It’s finally here, football season.  When the numbers I fantasize about go from 36-24-36 to 32-340-4.  When women sigh at losing their man on Sundays but secretly are relieved that leg shaving season is coming to a close.  When moving on to the next game after a loss isn't 7 months away.  FUCK.  YEAH.  Since lists are trendy I’m going to fall in with the crowd, with a football twist.  Four predictions coinciding with common down and distance.

1^st and 10 – Perfect time to make a vanilla call.

            The New England Patriots will run away with the AFC East.  It’s probably the softest division in the league.  Besides Tom, two rookies and Tannehil are starting under center.  While the Jets didn't make the same mistake of moving up to reach on a franchise guy (a la Sanchez), they haven’t done themselves any favors by forcing Geno Smith into a starting role for a team in turmoil.  Compounded by being in the New York media market, this season is going to be as awkward as Rex Ryan’s foot fetish video.  EJ Manuel might be settling into a more comfortable situation but that’s only because he has some good, physical running backs behind him.  What he has in front of him is a shaky offensive line and a downfield threat at receiver whose speed and personality are best described as streaky.  The Dolphins made some sexy draft picks and signings in free agency, but the losses of Reggie Bush, Jake Long, Dustin Keller, Sean Smith, and Brandon Marshall’s multiple personalities mean they aren't going to be any better and most probably will be worse.  Belichick and Brady.  That right there is good for an average of 12 wins a season.  Their strength of schedule is middle of the pack even though they are playing against a bunch of good teams.  But they went 16-0 against the 3^rd most difficult schedule in 2007, so I don’t think that stat matters too much.

2^nd and short – Take a shot a homerun.

            Second year starters are going to have a down year.  I would say sophomore slumps, but Kaepernick is actually in his third year.  As opposing teams get more film on these young guns, they will be able to exploit the areas that they are still developing.  While the 49er's are still going to be a good team, I expect their QB has the largest drop off, at least as a passer.  Kaepernick was electric when he ran and didn't get nicked up.  He also didn't start until week 10.  Watching tape, I noticed that he doesn't get deep into his progressions before taking off and he has poor mechanics.  As defenses figure out how to combat the zone-read and add a QB spy in the second level, he will struggle.  I’m so sick of RG3 (thanks ESPN) that all I’ll say is this: his success is dependent on how the Redskins employ his skill set while protecting him from injury more than the actual recovery from knee reconstruction.  Russell Wilson looked like a better passer than the previous two guys mentioned while also scrambling successfully.  A strong defense, physical offense, and the 12^th man in Seattle will help him.  But their pass catchers are mostly outside/vertical guys.  With the way the league is shifting, QB’s (especially young developing ones) really benefit from a talented tight end or underneath/middle of the field guy to keep the chains moving, especially on third down.  Will Andrew’s Luck run out?  There was a lot of talk about Luck’s 4^th quarter heroics and his poise was likely due to him spending an extra year at Stanford to mature instead of coming out after his sophomore season.  But the Colts were 9-1 in one possession games against the easiest schedule in the league.  These two things are not likely to repeat themselves.  Since the Manning Era ended in Indy they have managed to quickly rebuild the team, but their running game is questionable and Reggie Wayne is the only proven pass catcher.  I think Luck fares the best out of this group but I don’t see him having as much 4^th quarter magic.

3^rd and Long – Time to chuck the ball and hope something special happens.

            Drew Brees sets more passing records while leading the Saints on a deep playoff run.  Last year New Orleans’s offense was as good as their defense was bad.  The Bounty Scandal (adding ‘gate’ to a word is another thing ESPN has ruined) clearly had a negative effect.  Sean Payton is one of the better coaches in the league and his return will offset the loss of personnel to a historically bad defensive unit.  The Saints being a contender this year doesn't seem like a gamble, but the NFC South might be the best division in the league (I think the NFC West is over-rated, as per my previous prediction).  The Panthers are likely to finish last, and since they play the AFC East, they might be last with an 8-8 record.  Yup, now my prediction is getting wacky, but in 2010 the Seahawks made the playoffs with a losing record. Shit happens.

4^th and anything – You’ll look like a genius if you convert or an idiot if don't.

            The New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl, by looking like the teams from 2001-2004.  Call this a lazy pick from a fan, but fuck you, this is my blog.  The talking heads are all saying that the receiving core got decimated and has injury issues.  Maybe, but JC in Cleats won three rings with undersized wide receivers and less talented tight ends.  Their run game has been pretty consistent as of late and made them a balanced team when they seem like a throw-first offense.  While the defense is nowhere near the squad they had in the early 2000’s, they are maturing and have a lot of talent.  Fact is, I just wanted to finish this article so I can watch pre-game coverage of tonight’s game.